The 20th of January 2018 marked the launch of Operation Olive Branch by the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) de facto autonomous region of Afrin. This decision was galvanized following a potential US plan to train, arm and mobilize 30,000 SDF border troops in Northern Syria[1], a move unwelcomed by President Erdogan, who stated “A country we call an ally is insisting on forming a terror army on our borders (..)What can that terror army target but Turkey? Our mission is to strangle it before it's even born”[2]. In line with the US-Turkish contrasting agendas and the SDF power consolidating in Northern Syria, the situation was perceived as quagmire triggering alarms in Ankara to act quickly and respond imminently.
The TAF and the Ankara-led Free Syrian Army (FSA) initiated the incursion with the aim to prevent a “terror corridor”[3] through truncating the Rojava region from its Western periphery of Afrin and to “establish security and stability, and eliminate terrorists to save locals from their oppression and cruelty" as expressed by Ankara[4]. Following more than two months of armed confrontations that further exacerbated the regional turmoil, the TAF occupied Afrin and straddled on the Syrian-Turkish borders[5]. Moreover, the operation accumulated more casualties from all sides, particularly amongst the SDF as well as unarmed civilians.
Operation Olive Branch received ambivalent reactions by the international community, predominantly amongst actors involved in the Syrian equation. However, as the cycle of turmoil and dissensions continue to expand in the political and societal texture of Syria, each entity aspires to exploit and perpetuate any emerging situation in order to entrench a future transition that pours into its favor despite the heavy cost of atrocities being committed. Since the operation is transpiring in proximity with a region plagued with fragility, the Olive Branch’s waves carry various implications on the major stakeholders in the conflict. With that being said, this article aims to briefly introduce the Operation Olive Branch and assess the Syrian regime’s benefits from the operation. This is done through identifying the major opportunities utilized by the regime in order to maintain its benefits. Hence, this article is part of a longer series that aims to divide the major actors involved and to scrutinize their benefits.
Assessing The Regime's Benefits
The Syrian regime is aware of the repercussions of the Turkish actions in Afrin. However, Assad’s administration approaches armed non-state actors as potential enemies whom the initiation of armed engagement is inevitable. Such entities are perceived as a present threat and, if not addressed, a heavy future burden. Hence, the TAF’s presently conducted operation reliefs in Damascus from the burden of conducting it in the future. Not only that, Assad’s regime has further conducted more than four offensives against government opposition since the TAF’s incursion[6]. Taken together, such shifting fronts are perpetuated by Assad to augment and consolidate his power through deterring armed militias and impeding future plans of dividing the pre-war Syria.
The Olive Branch Operation is also perceived by Damascus as a keen opportunity to clip the wings of the United States in Syria. The US consoled the SDF with key financial, technical and logistical support[7]. Due to the former’s firm position towards the inclusion of Assad in Syria’s future and the defiance of Iranian expansionary tendency in the region, the existence of US backed groups will impede Assad’s desires and visions for Syria. Moreover, Assad’s defiance of the US policies in Syria will not grant the latter an upper hand in its regional rivalry with Russia, Assad’s strongest ally. Thus, Assad’s consolidation of Russian influence in the region has the marginal revenue of Russian amiability to Assad.
Since the outbreak of the Syrian Crisis, Assad’s administration has carried out an appeasement policy with diversified actors to cope with emerging threats and challenges. The Syrian regime exploited armed militias as an unifying element with several international actors, predominately those who oppose its agenda. Damascus has de facto adhered portions of its sovereignty to actors such as the United States and Turkey to assist in addressing threats from Daesh and the SDF respectively. Through this, Assad has given himself the space and time to maneuver developed ties with contrasting actors, and received assistance in defying armed groups controlling territory he aspires to regain.
The international community has vigilantly followed the intricate, constantly shifting developments in the Syrian equation. Contrary to the initial speculations regarding Syria’s transitional future, Assad’s administration defied the demonstrations exacerbating more deteriorations and dissensions. The regime’s callous crackdown received the lion’s share of attention from the international community with regards to the situation in Syria. However, regional turmoil facilitated the expansion of radical organizations that, due to their atrocities, have reshaped the hierarchy of priorities in the Syrian Crisis. With that being said, Assad’s regime exploits the Turkish involvement in Afrin in order to perpetuate the international community’s shifting attention to priorities in Syria.
To conclude, Operation Olive Branch has further entangled the complex Syrian crisis increasing the armed engagements amongst actors in the region. Despite its rather short duration, the operation has major implications that entwined the risks and opportunities for the major stakeholders in the conflict. The present article has briefly discussed the operation with emphasis on the Syrian regime’s gains from it. Furthermore, the study aims to pave a way for future research on the operation while focusing on the perspective of the different actors involved in the Syrian Crisis.