The recent coup in Niger has started a series of cascading effects that are now rippling across neighboring countries in the region, with Gabon being the latest to witness significant developments. The shift in political dynamics in Niger has reverberated across West Africa, potentially emboldening other military factions to assert their influence. The appearance of army officers on national television in Gabon, announcing their power grab, underscores the contagious nature of political instability in the African continent. If confirmed, it would mark the eighth coup within the former French colonies in Africa over the span of the last three years.
France's economic involvement in Gabon is deeply rooted in its colonial history, creating a complex relationship that spans critical sectors of the economy. One of the most notable aspects of this involvement is the presence of a significant military base known as the "Camp de Gaulle" in the capital city, Libreville. This military base holds strategic importance due to historical ties and regional considerations, allowing France to maintain a prominent presence in the area.
In terms of economic engagement, France's interests extend across vital sectors such as energy, timber, and mining. Gabon's substantial natural resources have drawn French attention for decades. This economic involvement have often resulted in resource exploitation, where these valuable assets are extracted to benefit foreign entities, particularly those from France. This exploitation has raised concerns about the equitable distribution of benefits, as local communities often bear the environmental and social consequences.
Niger Coup's Ripple Effects
The Niger coup has amplified concerns about a potential domino effect, as existing power struggles and discontent within the military ranks in various neighboring nations could find inspiration in these events. The perceived "success" of the coup in Niger might be interpreted as a viable means to challenge established leaderships. In Gabon, the soldiers who declared the coup identified themselves as members of the Committee of Transition and the Restoration of Institutions, representing the country's security and defense forces to “defend peace by putting an end to the current regime.”
Extensive research indicates that since 1950 Africa has borne the highest incidence of coup attempts or successes globally, totalling 214 out of 486 recorded cases. This dominance is unprecedented across all continents. Impressively, a notable portion of these attempts, precisely 106, have resulted in successful transfers of power.
Among African nations, Sudan emerges as a significant case, witnessing the most coup attempts—both successful and attempted—since 1950, there has been 17 in total. This data, as per Powell and Thyne's research, provides insights into the volatility of Sudan's political landscape over the years. Notably, six of these attempts were successful, with the latest taking place in October, showing a persisting undercurrent of political instability.
Burkina Faso has witnessed fewer coup attempts within the same timeframe. However, the nation stands out with the highest count of coup successes, totalling eight incidents. The most recent attempt took place in January. These findings underscore the complexity of political dynamics across the African continent, where the prevalence of coup attempts highlights the intricate interplay of factors shaping the region's governance and leadership transitions.
Is Gabon the Next One in Line?
Gabon has been ruled by the Bongo family for over 56 years. Ali Bongo Ondimba, commonly known as Ali Bongo, has been accused of election fraud and corruption throughout his nearly 14-year rule over the oil-rich yet impoverished nation.
Omar Bongo, the president's father, assumed control in 1967 and governed until his passing in 2009. During his tenure, the nation often functioned as a single-party state, marked by the arrest and even assassination of opposition members. Omar Bongo ruled during an era of substantial oil growth within a highly corrupt regime and earned a reputation as one of the world's wealthiest leaders.
Decades of corruption, repression, and inequality in Gabon have bred frustration among its population. Socioeconomic disparities persist, amplifying the gap between the privileged few and marginalized majority. This toxic mix of factors has fueled discontent, motivating calls for change and accountability. Recent events in Gabon reflect a deep-seated desire for meaningful transformation and a departure from a status quo marked by systemic challenges.
As observed in many other cases, ineffective governance often creates fertile ground for coup d'etats. When governments fail to address citizens' needs, corruption thrives, institutions weaken, and dissent grows. These conditions increase the likelihood of military interventions as frustrated populations seek change through other means.
In both Niger and Gabon, the reaction to the coup was visible on the streets as crowds of people came out to celebrate. This kind of response might seem surprising, given that a coup represents an abrupt and undemocratic change in government that is often marked by uncertainty and potential instability. However, it reflects the deep-rooted frustration and disillusionment that many citizens in these countries feel towards their existing leadership.
An Oil-Rich yet Impoverished Nation
Being a member of the OPEC, Gabon stands out as one of the key players in Africa's oil production, contributing to the continent's energy landscape. In 2020, for instance, the oil sector accounted for 38.5% of GDP and 70.5% of exports despite efforts to diversify the economy. A coup in Gabon would likely have profound effects on both the local population and the broader region. Domestically, political instability could lead to civil unrest, posing risks to citizen safety and essential services. Uncertainty regarding governance might impact economic activities and disrupt daily life. Regionally, a Gabonese coup could have further spillover effects, as it is happening now after Niger’s.
Gabon's oil production, while not as substantial as some OPEC members, contributes to global supply. A coup could lead to supply disruptions and impact regional economies reliant on Gabonese oil, such as Congo (Brazzaville) and Equatorial Guinea. Neighboring countries might face increased refugee flows, straining resources and potentially igniting conflicts. Regional stability could be undermined, with diplomatic and security repercussions affecting West and Central Africa. Finally, Europe indeed has reasons to be concerned about the potential challenges to regional stability and the resulting impact on its security and economic interests. Instabilities in countries like Gabon can lead to broader regional repercussions that extend beyond national borders.
The Gabonese coup, happening in this evolving regional environment, amplifies concerns about the potential domino effect within a complex web of neighboring countries. The parallels between Niger and Gabon underscore the transnational nature of political discontent, as existing power struggles and military actors might find inspiration from perceived coup successes in nearby nations. This trend challenges the stability of the entire region, extending the implications beyond national boundaries.
As Gabon becomes the latest example of this spillover, it signals the urgency for regional and international actors to monitor and address the underlying causes of political instability. The interconnectedness of West African nations, combined with the shared challenges of security, governance, and socio-economic development, makes it imperative to prevent the destabilization of one country from triggering a wider crisis.