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This research paper is part of a trilogy. In the first paper we researched Belgium’s National Security Strategy, in this one we examine the Dutch Grand Security Strategy and in a third paper, we’ll compare the both of them using the ICMO-framework.

Summary

On April 3, 2023, the Netherlands introduced its Comprehensive National Security Strategy (NVS), extending its scope to include overseas territories like Sint Maarten, Curaçao, Aruba, and the Caribbean Netherlands. Unlike earlier, narrower strategies, this plan addresses both national and international challenges, reflecting the interconnectedness of today’s security landscape. The development involved extensive collaboration among ministries, experts, and citizens, with the Comprehensive Risk Assessment as its foundation, identifying threats like cyberattacks, climate change, and terrorism.

The strategy outlines three main goals: ensuring a safe kingdom in a multipolar world, strengthening the democratic rule of law, and creating a prepared, resilient society. These goals translate into concrete actions, such as investing in international partnerships, enhancing armed forces, combating organized crime, and improving pandemic preparedness. Coordination lies with the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV) and related ministries, with periodic progress updates provided to Parliament.

Shaped by recent events like the war in Ukraine, the 2021 Limburg floods, and the COVID-19 pandemic, the NVS underscores the urgency of proactive measures. Valid until 2029, it provides a roadmap for strengthening resilience and safeguarding national security in a rapidly evolving global context.

1. Development of the National Security Strategy

On April 3, 2023, the Kingdom of the Netherlands published its "Comprehensive National Security Strategy" (Rijksbrede Veiligheidsstrategie). While previous strategies had been devised, they were not comprehensive in scope. With this new nationwide NVS, the Netherlands aimed not only to focus on the country itself but also on its overseas territories, namely Sint Maarten, Curaçao, and Aruba. The "special municipalities" of Bonaire, Sint Eustatius, and Saba—collectively known as "Caribbean Netherlands"—were also included in the application of the new strategy.

The strategy differed not only in its geographical scope but also in its content, as it aimed to be more comprehensive. “Today, you cannot separate national and international aspects,” said one of the two insiders I interviewed for my research. This broader strategy succeeded the national security strategies previously implemented by the Netherlands.

Previous Strategy

In 2006, the Dutch Minister of the Interior and Kingdom Relations announced a national approach to "identifying threats and taking measures against them." The minister initiated the strategy in response to various factors. On the one hand, there was growing complexity in Dutch society, where different dynamics and interests intersected. On the other hand, the minister observed increasing dependency on various (technical) systems.

Additionally, urbanization and the rising population density in cities posed significant risks. Incidents or disasters in urban areas could result in high casualties due to the large concentration of people. (Rijksoverheid, 2006)

These developments prompted the minister to act proactively and initiate a strategy focused on strengthening resilience and the ability to respond effectively to potential crises. (Inspectie

Ministerie Justitie en Veiligheid, 2023). This marked the first step in the so-called "professionalization of the risk debate."

The Dutch government aimed to ensure that limited public resources for national security were used effectively and efficiently. Moreover, the goal was to communicate openly about the government's capabilities and limitations in safeguarding national security. The plan followed a cyclical process, with the strategy being fine-tuned every three years. The most recent update before transitioning to a comprehensive national strategy was in 2019 (Rijksoverheid, 2019).

However, in 2023, as mentioned earlier, the decision was made to transition to the concept of a comprehensive national strategy. The development of this strategy took place in several phases.

Phase 1: Commitment in Parliament

Interestingly, the initiative to create the Comprehensive Strategy originated in Parliament. It was placed on the agenda of the House of Representatives, and on February 21, 2023, then- Prime Minister Mark Rutte made a commitment (Tweede Kamer, 2023). The Cabinet promised to present a comprehensive national security strategy "before the summer recess." This commitment was made during a plenary debate on Dutch support for Ukraine.

Phase 2: Comprehensive Risk Assessment as a Basis

The Comprehensive National Security Strategy is based on the Comprehensive Risk Assessment. Strategic advisors at the Ministry of Justice and Security and the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security confirmed that this document was crucial to shaping the strategy. Consequently, drafting the Comprehensive Strategy was an expertise- driven process.

Since 2011, the Comprehensive Risk Assessment has been developed by the Analyst Network for National Security (ANV), a network of independent analysts. This network works under

the direction of the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security and consists of a core group of seven organizations:

• The General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD)
• The Clingendael Institute
• The Military Intelligence and Security Service
• The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
• The Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO)
• SEO Economic Research
• The Scientific Research and Documentation Center

The most recent Comprehensive Risk Assessment identified a broad range of threats and associated risks, including cyberattacks, economic shocks, climate change, natural disasters, and infectious diseases. The analysis highlights six key areas of security: territorial security, physical integrity, economic stability, environmental protection, social and political cohesion, and international legal order and stability. These topics became central to the Comprehensive National Security Strategy (Comprehensive Risk Assessment, 2022).

However, this assessment was not the only document on which the Dutch Cabinet based its strategy. Various other threat assessments drafted during the strategy's development period were also considered, including:

• Threat Assessment for Terrorism in the Netherlands
• Cybersecurity Assessment Netherlands
• Threat Assessment of State Actors

In addition, a series of thematic reports were incorporated into the drafting of the Comprehensive Strategy, such as:

• Thematic Report on Threats to Vital Infrastructure
• Thematic Report on Cyber Threats
• Thematic Report on Economic Threats
• Thematic Report on Infectious Diseases
• Thematic Report on International and Military Threats
• Thematic Report on Climate and Natural Disasters
• Thematic Report on Undesirable Interference and Influence
• Thematic Report on Polarization, Extremism, and Terrorism
• Thematic Report on Major Accidents
• Thematic Report on Comprehensive Risk Analysis for the Caribbean Part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands

Experts from the ANV were also asked to conduct an additional in-depth analysis of the war in Ukraine. This document was included in the drafting phase, discussed in the next section (RIVM, 2023).

Finally, it is worth noting that the 2019 Security Strategy was reviewed by the Inspectorate of Justice and Security to ensure its findings could be incorporated into the Comprehensive Strategy. This was detailed in a letter from Minister Yesilgöz-Zegerius on February 28, 2023 (Yesilgöz-Zegerius, 2023).

Phase 3: Drafting Phase

Based on this input, the drafting process began. Broad collaboration took place among various agencies, organizations, and ministries, with coordination handled by the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security. In addition to ministries such as Foreign Affairs, Justice & Security, and Defense, the safety regions in the Netherlands and the Caribbean part of the Kingdom were also involved.

A strategic advisor at the NCTV explained that the drafting phase involved a core group and a broader consultation group. The core group, which included ministries like Foreign Affairs, Public Health, and Economic Affairs, drafted initial texts. Once agreement was reached within the core group, these texts were shared with the broader consultation group, which included additional actors like the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Education and Culture.

After alignment in the broader consultation group, the texts were further reviewed by a steering group composed of directors from the various ministries. The final drafts were then submitted to the Cabinet for approval.

To ensure the strategy also involved citizens and experts, additional consultations were held. Resilience sessions were organized with experts, allowing them to provide input on the draft documents. Citizens were engaged through focus groups organized by the Ministry of Justice and Security.

Phase 4: Submission to Parliament

On April 3, 2023, the Comprehensive National Security Strategy was submitted to the House of Representatives, accompanied by a letter from the responsible ministers, Yesilgöz-Zegerius (Justice and Security) and Hoekstra (Foreign Affairs) (Yesilgöz-Zegerius & Hoekstra, 2023).

Influences

Several recent events influenced the authors of this document. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine was a central theme during the strategy's development, as the strategy was promised during a parliamentary debate on Dutch support for Ukraine. This is explicitly mentioned in a letter from Minister Yesilgöz-Zegerius to the House of Representatives dated September 23, 2023.

Other events fresh in the minds of the authors included the 2021 floods in Limburg, the disruption caused by Hurricane Irma, and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic (Rijksoverheid, 2023).

2. Content of the Comprehensive National Security Strategy

The Comprehensive National Security Strategy outlines the strategic direction for security in its broadest sense. This first version of the strategy applies from 2023 to 2029 and consists of three parts:

Part 1: Threats to National Security

Part 2: Strategic Direction

Part 3: Steering National Security

The strategic direction comprises three main objectives with 12 associated action lines:

1. A Safe Kingdom in a Multipolar World
   • Investing in international partnerships
   • Strengthening the armed forces
   • Combating hybrid conflict and increasing economic resilience o Protecting scientific research
2. A Resilient Democratic Rule of Law
   
   • Enhancing social stability
   • Countering organized and subversive crime
   • Preventing unwanted interference and espionage
   • Strengthening digital resilience
   • Preventing and combating terrorism and extremism
3. Ensuring a Prepared and Resilient Society
   
   • Protecting vital infrastructure
   • Enhancing pandemic preparedness
   • Strengthening crisis management and societal readiness

4. Implementation

Implementation is overseen by the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV), the Ministry of Justice and Security, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Specific staff have been assigned to monitor the strategy, and a strategic advisor at the NCTV emphasized maintaining an ongoing network of working groups, steering groups, and broader consultations throughout implementation.

The strategy must be implemented budget-neutrally, though specific departmental budgets are allocated. Its limited validity from 2023 to 2029 creates a sense of urgency to act on the outlined points.

Periodic meetings are held to review progress, and Parliament is updated regularly. A second progress letter is expected by the end of 2024 or summer 2025 (Rijksoverheid, 2023).