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October2025_Beyond the Ceasefire_Yasmine.pdf

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Introduction

Since the release of the 2020 ‘Peace to Prosperity’ plan by the Trump administration, the geopolitical context in the region has shifted significantly. The plan effectively endorsed the annexation of large areas of the West Bank, reinforced Israeli control over Jerusalem, and left the Palestinian territories fragmented with limited autonomy. These developments have facilitated settlement expansion and increased incidents of settler violence. In Gaza, successive ceasefire agreements—mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States—have repeatedly been violated through airstrikes, blockade enforcement, and targeted killings, often within days of their adoption. Such breaches undermine the credibility of negotiated truces and exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis.

Today, there is broad international recognition of the severe political and humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian territories, characterized by widespread displacement, starvation, and military occupation. These conditions have prompted global mobilization calling for an end to the blockade of Gaza and to the continued annexation of the West Bank. In Gaza, a man-made famine as well as heavy air bombardment have been devastating the civilian population, exacerbated by Israel’s deliberate dismantling of the UN-coordinated humanitarian system “and its replacement with the politically motivated “GHF” (Gaza Humanitarian Foundation) — a so-called “aid system” responsible for the deaths of nearly 1400 starving people”, as declared by UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini. GHF has suspended its operations since the ceasefire. At the same time, settler violence is escalating across the West Bank, further inflamed by a recent Knesset vote in favor of annexing the territory — a clear violation of international law. The move has been criticized by US Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, further highlighting the Trump administration’s balancing act on Netanyahu’s political aspirations.

At the UN Conference on the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution in late July, states moved beyond symbolic gestures such as simple recognition and tackled key structural issues: the economic viability of a future Palestinian state, the unification of Gaza and the West Bank under a single Palestinian administration, and an end to Israeli settlement expansion. Although the conference concluded with the launch of the “New York Call,” in which 15 Western countries urged others to recognize Palestine, it failed to produce any immediate or concrete measures. Since, on 21 and 22 September, European states including France, Belgium and Portugal, formally recognized Palestine.

These efforts remain largely symbolic and insufficient in scope. The EU must urgently move beyond rhetoric and translate its commitments into action. Following the signing of the ceasefire deal, European measures should focus on enforcing compliance and accountability.

I. The Situation in Gaza: Man-Made Famine, Breaches of International Law, and a Failing Ceasefire

Since October 2023, Israel’s military operations in Gaza have resulted in extensive civilian casualties and the collapse of essential infrastructure. According to UN agencies and humanitarian organizations, the systematic destruction of agricultural assets, restrictions on aid delivery, and repeated strikes on food distribution sites have created conditions amounting to a man-made famine. A March 2024 report by the Global Network Against Food Crises characterized Gaza’s food situation as “catastrophic and unprecedented,” with over 90% of the population facing acute food insecurity. On 22 August, the United Nations formally declared a state of famine in Gaza.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), in its provisional measures issued in January and March 2024, determined that there is a plausible risk of genocide and instructed Israel to take all steps to prevent conditions that could lead to the destruction of the Palestinian population. Ongoing restrictions on humanitarian access and the targeting of aid convoys continue to raise serious concerns regarding compliance with these binding measures and international humanitarian law.

Since the ceasefire, humanitarian aid has still failed to reach Gaza adequately. Essential supplies—including food, water, medical provisions, and fuel—remain severely restricted due to Israeli controls. Heavy machinery and cement, crucial for clearing rubble and rebuilding infrastructure, are largely unavailable, leaving municipalities unable to restore essential services. UN agencies and NGOs have repeatedly faced delays or denials: UNRWA had thousands of trucks of aid ready in Egypt and Jordan that were blocked from entry, and at least 17 international NGOs reported urgent shipments refused between October 10 and 21, 2025. The ongoing blockade and lack of rebuilding resources continue to exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, leaving the population without basic necessities despite the nominal ceasefire. In the ceasefire’s first phase, more than half of the Gaza Strip remains under Israeli military occupation, preventing many displaced Gazans from returning to their homes or beginning reconstruction.

II. The West Bank: Settler Violence and Annexation Policies

In parallel, settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank—often carried out with direct or indirect support from the IDF—has surged. From October 2023 through December 2024, at least 1,860 incidents of settler violence were recorded, averaging four per day. Israeli NGO B’Tselem data show that forced flight affected at least 18 Palestinian communities (over 1,000 people).
Reports by Amnesty International, UN agencies, and Special Rapporteurs document the systematic use of violence to seize land, dismantle villages, and impose apartheid-like conditions—including the demolition of over 933 structures and nearly 943 deaths in 2025 alone. Since October 2023, the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reports that 1,001 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank, including approximately one in five children.

III. Trump’s 20-Step Peace Plan for Palestine/Israel

In late 2025, the Trump administration unveiled a sweeping peace initiative meant to end the war in the Gaza Strip. While it won conditional support from both Hamas and Israel — and drew backing from a broad Arab-Islamic group alongside international brokers — the plan’s fragile architecture exposed deep risks. At its heart it proposed a ceasefire, limited Israeli withdrawal, prisoner‐and‐hostage exchanges, the creation of a demilitarized Gaza, and the installation of a technocratic Palestinian administration under international supervision.

But beneath the veneer of diplomacy lie structural vulnerabilities: disarmament preconditions give Israel a lever to stall withdrawal indefinitely; the governance framework lacks clarity on who supervises, under what mandate, and when full Israeli pull-out happens; and crucially, the plan fails to offer a path to Palestinian statehood or to meaningfully integrate the West Bank into its vision. As such, the agreement marks only a tentative truce rather than a durable settlement — trust is thin, power asymmetries stark, and the looming possibility remains that the war could reignite before its promises are realised.

The fragile accord has already experienced several breaches. As of October 28, the Israeli military has conducted renewed operations across Gaza, resulting in at least one hundred Palestinian deaths. These strikes followed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s order for “powerful” retaliatory action after an exchange of fire in southern Rafah that left one Israeli soldier dead. This escalation represents the most significant flare-up since the ceasefire’s implementation. Nonetheless, President Trump asserted that the truce “remains intact,” minimizing the implications of these events. Such recurrent violations underscore the limited capacity of mediators like Egypt and Qatar to enforce compliance in the absence of a firm U.S. commitment to uphold the agreement.

Additionally, although the current plan is presented as the most comprehensive framework for de-escalation to date, it follows several earlier ceasefire efforts—most notably the Egyptian- and Qatari-brokered truces of 2024 and early 2025, as well as the UN-mediated Cairo talks—which collapsed amid continued Israeli airstrikes and disagreements over prisoner exchanges, border control, and humanitarian access. Without robust enforcement mechanisms and sustained international oversight, this latest arrangement risks becoming yet another temporary pause rather than a foundation for durable peace and reconstruction.

IV. EU Response: Limited Action and Delayed Measures

Before the ceasefire, EU officials had already flagged indications that Israel might be violating Article 2 of the EU–Israel Association Agreement, which makes respect for human rights and democratic principles an essential element of the pact. In May 2025, High Representative Kaja Kallas formally launched a review of Israel’s compliance with that clause. Nevertheless, when the foreign ministers convened in July, they rejected a package of ten proposed sanctions—including suspending the association agreement or restricting trade—preferring dialogue over punitive measures. Humanitarian aid pledges continued, but were limited, delayed, and free of conditionality. NGO campaigns urged stronger responses, including full suspension of the association agreement.

The only EU-level corrective action advanced was a partial restriction on Israeli access to Horizon Europe funding—a move widely seen as symbolic rather than transformative. Meanwhile, several member states undertook their own initiatives: Slovenia upheld a full arms embargo and recognized Palestine; Ireland and Spain renewed calls for EU-wide sanctions; and Belgium and the Netherlands pursued universal jurisdiction cases against Israeli officials (though judicial progress has been uneven).

The European Parliament in September 2025 passed a resolution urging review of Israel’s trade preferences—but no binding measures have yet followed. In the meantime, accountability momentum has largely shifted to the Global South: at the July 2025 Bogotá Emergency Conference, 30+ states pledged to support the ICC investigation, impose arms export suspensions, and enforce universal jurisdiction mechanisms.

Following the ceasefire, the EU’s posture shifted in tone but not in substance. Brussels publicly welcomed the truce as a “step toward de‑escalation,” yet again avoided assigning responsibility for violations or tying compliance to future assistance.

The contrast with the EU’s bureaucratic paralysis could not be starker. While some countries in the Global South and a handful of European nations lead efforts to enforce international law, the EU — once a vocal supporter of multilateralism — now shelters behind proceduralism, prioritizing balance over justice.

V. Recommendations: A Roadmap for EU Action

Following the recent ceasefire, the EU faces a critical opportunity to prevent further complicity in human rights violations, reaffirm its credibility on the international scene and work towards lasting peace by urgently adopting the following measures:

1. demanding international monitoring and accountability mechanisms for ceasefire enforcement, including penalties for repeated violations by Israel.
2. suspending arms exports to Israel and freezing military cooperation until full compliance with the ceasefire is verified.
3. supporting international prosecutions for war crimes and violations of the ceasefire under the ICC and ICJ frameworks.
4. pushing for a UN-led process to replace unilateral U.S. frameworks that marginalize Palestinian statehood, drawing for instance on Egypt’s proposal for a UN-mandated international presence in Gaza and the West Bank to oversee a transitional Palestinian administration, reconstruction, and a roadmap toward recognized statehood.
5. conditioning all bilateral relations-political, economic, scientific, and security-on measurable adherence to the ceasefire, international human rights law, and humanitarian obligations.

Conclusion

The ongoing violations of ceasefires continued settlement expansion, and persistent disregard for international law have left Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank in a protracted humanitarian crisis. In this context, the EU must step forward as a proactive guarantor of international law, leveraging its diplomatic, economic, and political tools to enforce compliance, uphold human rights, and support a credible, just, and sustainable path toward peace. Without decisive EU engagement, the cycle of violence and fragmentation is likely to persist, further undermining prospects for a viable Palestinian state and lasting peace.

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