Very often commentators have suggested that Libyan citizens support a push for elections at the earliest opportunity. One such example was the remarks made by the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Jeffrey Feltman, in January of this year:
“Public opinion poll after public opinion poll demonstrate the strong support of the majority of Libyans from all parts of the country to be able to participate in credible elections and to be able to participate in credible elections in this year.”[1]
However, this claim that Libyan citizens themselves support elections as soon as possible is normally left unchallenged. This article examines this claim, and some of the indicators that are normally invoked to support it. These indicators are an increase in voter registration rates with the Libyan electoral commission, HNEC; data gathered by various organizations through public opinion polls and surveys that seems to support the claim; and the apparent success of recent municipal elections in Zawia. While it is argued that these indicators are all somewhat flawed, perhaps a better indicator for the Libyan appetite for democracy is the National Conference consultation process.
HNEC and the Problem with Voter Registration Rates
One of the first indicators that commentators can point to in order to defend the claim that Libyans support early elections is evidence of increasing voter registrations with the High National Electoral Commission (HNEC)[2]. For instance, on Twitter[3] HNEC has displayed the increase in voter registrations between 6th December 2017 and 13th January 2018, a very significant increase especially during the middle part of December. But they do this without considering that HNEC only opened voter registrations in December, so it is natural to see an initial increase in its first month. Also, registrations are only concentrated in localized areas of Libya, and further registration does not guarantee that citizens will actually cast their vote come the day of elections. Finally, as seen in a survey conducted in 2017 by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)[4], there is great demographical disparity between voting groups: women are underrepresented, with only 53% of survey respondents registered to vote with the HNEC, and also young people are underrepresented, with only 51% of all respondents aged 18-29 registered to vote.
As a side note, HNEC has many significant challenges with implementation of elections in Libya beyond the problem of voter registration. For instance, on May 2nd 2018, the terrorist group Daesh attacked the main building of HNEC in Tripoli[5]. The attack resulted in the deaths of 12 people, while the terrorists set fire to the building itself. This news is a stark reminder of the security challenges faced in democratic implementation in Libya, and demonstrates that there are still significant elements within Libya who will bitterly resist that implementation.
Ambiguities with Public Opinion Surveys
So if voter registrations are not a sufficient indicator, perhaps commentators can instead refer to surveys and opinion polls that seem to show an enthusiasm from Libyans to participate in elections. For example in the 2017 IFES survey [6], in a sample of 1,979 respondents 63% either replied “very likely”, or “somewhat likely” when asked if they would vote in Presidential elections held “soon”. However, even within this IFES report, public opinion is demonstrably varied and at sometimes contradictory. For instance, there is a great deal of support, 68%, for General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army, and only 15% in the UN-backed Government of National Accord. There is also a great deal of distrust in initiatives led by the international community: some 56% of respondents believe that for a successful national dialogue process, a new framework must be created without international interference. Moreover while a 55% majority of this survey indicates preferring the election of an interim executive power as the solution to the crisis, there is also a 45% majority that believes a military leadership is preferable to the position of 36% that a newly elected president is instead preferable.
Furthermore, despite a majority favoring the election of a new interim executive, an even greater proportion of respondents at 65% indicated that they would be likely to vote in a constitutional reform process than a presidential election [7]. This step was included in the UN-brokered 2015 Libyan Political Agreement as supposedly a critical precondition for any successful elections. In addition, in a more recent July 2018 survey [8], by news operator Ean Libya, some 79% of respondents indicated that they would prefer a constitutional referendum before going to elections, whereas only 21% suggested they prefer elections first.
As an additional methodological note, any set of survey data or statistics regarding opinion must be approached with caution. There are a number of studies that demonstrate that even the most “random” of opinion polls incur bias. For instance, people surveyed often express more extreme opinions as the people who tend to respond to surveys are those with stronger opinions. There are also issues of response rates: open and optional questions tend to get much lower response rates than closed or mandatory questions, as individuals are able to skip answers and avoid some questions altogether. For a more comprehensive take on the problems of surveys and statistical data in general, see Rempfer’s research titled Statistical Manipulation [9].
Municipal Elections in Zawia
So at the least, polls regarding Libyan public opinion are contested. Maybe as a final strategy, commentators can instead point to evidence of recent success stories within Libya that have showed an appetite for Libyans to vote. For example, the successful implementation of municipal elections in Zawia, during May of this year, with a remarkable 63% voter turnout of those eligible to vote is one such success story [10]. Ghassan Salame, of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) remarked earlier this year [11] that:
“On a more positive note… on the 12 May, the city of Zawiya… conducted the first municipal council election since 2015. In an open and competitive race, the local community supported by the municipal election committee have worked to ensure a peaceful and organized process, with national observers in every polling center.
This successful election marks the start of a series of municipal polls that will take place across the entire country.”
But consider that, unsurprisingly, only 26% of eligible women participated, and that Zawia was the only municipality to successfully hold an election. Hundreds more municipalities postponed planned elections due to ongoing security and political challenges [12]. Moreover, can the success of one local municipal election then ensure the success of national presidential and parliamentary elections? This is doubtful.
The Importance of the National Conference
Despite this, there are still positive signs for Libyan engagement with democratic processes. Clearly, there is an appetite for political engagement across Libya. One of the most effective aspects of the UN Action Plan in Libya has been the National Conference that was conducted by the UNSMIL and the Geneva-based Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue between April 4th and July 11th 2018 [13]. This was a consultation procedure, one that engaged over 7000 Libyans, in over 75 sessions and 43 locations across Libya. The aim has been to truly determine what Libyan citizens want from their democratic transition, in effect a large-scale public opinion poll, and an attempt to take a more “bottom-up” approach to the Libyan political transition.
As of yet, the final report is still being processed, but initial findings from the first consultations back in May 2018 [14] indicated Libyans desired a united and secure Libya, with effective border control, policing and a united military. They also wanted a Libya that distributed resources more fairly and has a competent government not based upon divisive ideologies. To interpret further would require the final report of the National Conference, when the complete findings are published. But, all observers should pay close attention to these results as they may find that the desires of the Libyan public do not match the agendas of certain players and politicians.
The BIC is committed to a stable and effective democratic transition for Libya, including an eventual democratic election process. However, the BIC is concerned that political agendas, both national and international, are rushing elections prematurely in December. Given Libya’s recent political struggles in the post-Gaddafi era, including serious concerns regarding security and armed militias, the BIC believes that another failed election in Libya will be counter-productive and may exacerbate tensions further. The BIC feels that the election process needs to have a legal framework, grounded in an accepted national constitution, that addresses existing logistical, political and security challenges in order to succeed. This depends upon both the compromise and negotiation of national actors and the engagement of ordinary Libyan citizens throughout the election process.