On Thursday, 10 August, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) directed the initiation of a prepared military force that could potentially be employed against the military junta responsible for orchestrating a recent coup in Niger. This coup led to the removal of the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum. ECOWAS, a coalition of 15 West African nations, had previously issued a warning, stating their intention to resort to military action against the coup leaders if they did not release and restore Bazoum to power by August 6. Bazoum holds significant importance as an ally to the European Union and notably to France, which maintains strong diplomatic relations with Niger. On Sunday 13 August, coup leader signaled that the deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum, could potentially confront charges of "high treason" and endangering state security.
BIC’s Advisor Fernando Aguiar said: "The activation of ECOWAS's standby force underscores the gravity of the situation in Niger. Earlier, Nigeria's President and current ECOWAS Chair, Tinubu, seemed to step back from immediate forceful action despite the deadline's expiration, indicating a reluctance within the regional grouping to engage in warfare. The conflicting messages from ECOWAS could be construed as a sign of weakness, potentially bolstering the confidence of Niger's junta. In addition, the force's potential deployment raises questions about its readiness and effectiveness, and its impact on the junta's stance remains uncertain. One thing is certain, the junta's response and the international community's reaction will shape the trajectory of events in Niger."
The ECOWAS Standby Force (ESF) represents a prepared framework comprising military, police, and civilian elements. It aligns with the principles outlined in Chapter VIII of the United Nations Charter, emphasizing the establishment of regional arrangements for maintaining peace and security. The ESF is an integral component of the broader African Standby Force (ASF) framework. There is no existing assembled military force available for immediate deployment. The ESF comprises command, planning, and logistical components, along with committed units like infantry battalions, logistical companies, engineer platoons, etc., which will come together when granted authorization. Within the framework of the intervention plan, the authority to determine the timing and location of any action rests with the heads of state.
Whichever course of action the 15-nation body opts, the potential for heightened conflict and devastation is very worrisome. This area is already susceptible to the proliferation of groups affiliated with Islamic State and al Qaeda, both of which capitalize on existing chaos.