On 30 June 2023, the EU released its Council conclusions, presenting an opportunity to analyze the strategic direction of the European Union and anticipating potential implications for the future. It covered a range of issues, including strengthening resilience, digital transformation, sustainable development, strategic partnerships, migration, crisis management, and respect for international law. The document also touched upon topics such as economic recovery, security, terrorism, and the promotion of human rights within and outside the EU.
Fernando Aguiar, BIC’s Senior Advisor, said: “One notable aspect is the emphasis on strengthening resilience, both internally and externally. This reflects a recognition of the EU's need to address various challenges, such as economic disruptions, cybersecurity threats, and geopolitical uncertainties. By prioritizing resilience, the EU aims to enhance its ability to withstand shocks and maintain stability in an increasingly complex global landscape. In addition, the focus on digital transformation and sustainable development indicates the EU's recognition of the importance of harnessing technological advancements and mitigating the impact of climate change. Finally, the Council's emphasis on strategic partnerships and dialogue with global stakeholders suggests a desire to assert the EU's influence on the international stage. Building and nurturing alliances can help the EU address common challenges, amplify its voice in global affairs, and shape the international agenda. However, effective implementation and careful navigation of geopolitical complexities will be crucial for the success of these partnerships.”
In addition to the EU Council conclusions, it is essential to analyze the EU's approach to its relations with China, specifically its stance on de-risking without decoupling. On the Council Conclusion, the EU recognizes the need to mitigate potential risks associated with its economic and technological interdependence with China. While acknowledging the importance of economic engagement, the EU aims to adopt a more cautious approach that safeguards its critical sectors, protects intellectual property rights, and ensures fair market access. This de-risking strategy seeks to balance economic cooperation with safeguarding the EU's interests and values.
At the same time, the EU emphasizes the importance of maintaining an open and constructive dialogue with China. It recognizes that decoupling from China entirely could have adverse consequences, such as disrupting global supply chains and impeding opportunities for cooperation on shared challenges like climate change and global health. The EU's approach is thus characterized by a desire to engage with China on areas of common interest while actively managing risks.
Fernando Aguiar, BIC’s Senior Advisor, said: “Finding the right balance between de-risking and engagement requires careful navigation and strategic foresight. The EU aims to strengthen its own economic resilience and diversify its partnerships to reduce overreliance on any single country. This approach not only enhances the EU's ability to manage risks but also ensures a more robust and sustainable economic framework.”
It is worth noting that the conclusions do not delve deeply into migration and crisis management, despite these being pressing issues. The lack of comprehensive strategies in these areas raises questions about the EU's ability to address future migration flows and effectively respond to humanitarian crises. A contentious battle over financial contributions for migration, highlights the deep divisions within the bloc. The dispute further demonstrates the lack of solidarity and cooperation among member states, hindering progress towards a cohesive and effective migration policy. The bickering over funding jeopardizes any meaningful resolution to the migration crisis.
Yasmine Akrimi, BIC’s North Africa Analyst, said: “The EU summit's conclusions on migration were delayed as Hungary and Poland utilized the platform to express their opposition to the migration and asylum deal proposed in May. This deal established a system that allows EU countries to choose between accepting a specific number of migrants annually or contributing to a joint EU fund. Hungary and Poland are advocating for voluntary relocations rather than mandatory ones. Their 11-hour obstruction serves as further evidence of the significance of the migration issue within the EU. In a separate development, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen circulated a letter to EU leaders this week, mentioning the commission's willingness to explore "out-of-the-box thinking" to address migration, which some interpret as referring to disembarkation platforms outside of the EU. This move is seen as an indication of the considerable influence of far-right Italian leader Giorgia Meloni on the EU's migration agenda, particularly in light of her recent visit to Tunisia alongside Von der Leyen. Tunisia, a country experiencing severe economic crisis, is regarded by Italy as an ideal "safe country" where rejected migrants and asylum-seekers can be relocated.”
In summary, the EU Council conclusions reflect the EU's aspirations to enhance resilience, embrace digital transformation, strengthen strategic partnerships, and address pressing challenges. However, translating these ambitions into practical policies, navigating complex geopolitical dynamics, and addressing critical issues such as migration and crisis management will be key for the EU's future success. Vigilance, adaptability, and proactive decision-making will be crucial for the EU to navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.