As forecasted, discussions at COP27 this year were mainly articulated around the issues of green financing and loss and damage in developing countries, topics that are underpinning the broader question of climate justice. After two weeks of tense and polarized negotiations, final deliberations are coming to an end, with probably no great achievements expected this year. With undeniable evidence and scientific-based assessments that human activities have been contributing to 98% of current climate change and global warming, absence of symbolic agreements on the necessity to abate the use of all fossil fuel energy - not only coal - would be a major miss. This disputed topic will certainly remain on the table of negotiations until the last moment.
Regarding loss and damage, China and the G77 submitted a draft text on the establishment of a transitory committee to form a special fund, with its status to be approved at COP28 in Dubai. But it seems unlikely that the creation of this funding mechanism takes shape this year. Indeed, the final document will most probably acknowledge the urgency to address loss and damage with proper fundings. Significant achievements with loss and damage will seemingly remain framed only under the advanced economies’ own initiatives and the proposals of some specific countries. Among them, the European Union set a 60 million € fund as part of the launch of Team Europe Initiative on Climate Change adaptation and Resilience in Africa and « Global Shield », a German-led plan for quick-financed insurance for victims of climate disasters, which should leverage three quarters of the announced pledges. This lack of unity and shared approach - particularly between Europeans and the United States - allows certain countries to continue to pass the responsibility of a fair and equitable green transition to others.
On the front of green finance, the final document will most certainly stress the need to scale-up support to developing countries at a faster pace to achieve mitigation and adaptation targets - especially the promised yearly 100 billion US$ which has never been met. Those objectives fall short of what is necessary:
- 1 trillion US$ a year by 2030 according to the High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance.
In addition, the document will likely call for reforms of the climate loans system of multilateral development banks, especially to make finance more accessible and to release the debt burden of developing countries. Considering the ongoing economic crisis, developed nations should look towards innovative financing solutions, including quantifying and accelerating transfer of low-carbon technologies, to help LMICs adapt faster with fewer financial costs. Finally, developed countries seem to have agreed to double finance for adaptation by 2025 which is a poor achievement considering that they engaged to “at least double it” last year in Glasgow.